Will Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s astonishing march on Moscow scupper the company’s influence on the continent?
The brazen but brief rebellion that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin launched in Russia at the weekend, and the deal he cut with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end it, clearly have large implications for Wagner in Africa. What these are, however, is harder to say.
However J Peter Pham, distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council and former US special envoy to the Sahel and to the Great Lakes, argues, ‘The key question is not what Lavrov or any other Russian official says, but what they are actually able to do in order to execute on their intentions. What is clear from Putin’s and Lavrov’s statements is that Wagner – though probably under a new name and new management – remains important to Putin’s foreign policy as it has acted as a proxy for Moscow in extending Russian influence across Africa. Specifically, it has helped Russia counter Western and particularly French influence.
Such atrocities are believed to be one of the main reasons Moscow for a long time kept Wagner at arm’s length, using it as a proxy for Russian interests but with some deniability because they weren’t ostensibly on the government payroll. Whatever happens, it seems Prigozhin’s days as Putin’s ally are done. Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director for foreign relations and international security at the Razumkov Centre in Kyiv, believes Putin will restructure Wagner, perhaps under a different name and a different boss. ‘But Putin is definitely not going to withdraw the Wagner operatives from Africa,’ he says. He predicts Putin will eliminate Prigozhin, though not immediately as he still commands considerable support.
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime senior analyst Julia Stanyard says the clash between Putin and Prigozhin presents African countries that have contracted Wagner a dilemma about how to position themselves.
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