The continued closure of international airports in Nigeria and other parts of the world has been blamed for the slow recovery of global aviation
World airlines, apparently unimpressed with the level of progress in the COVID-19 era, said the industry would not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, a year later than previously projected. Nigerian international airports have been shut in the last four months, although with the likelihood of reopening before October 15.
African airlines’ traffic sank 98.1 per cent in June, little changed from a 98.6 per cent demand drop in May. Capacity contracted 84.5 per cent, and load factor dived 62.1 percentage points to just 8.9 per cent of seats filled, lowest among regions. Furthermore, there is little sign of virus containment in many important emerging economies, which in combination with the U.S., represent around 40 per cent of global air travel markets. Their continued closure, particularly to international travel, is a significant drag on recovery.
Owing to these factors, IATA’s revised baseline forecast is for global enplanements to fall 55 per cent in 2020 compared to 2019 . Passenger numbers are expected to rise 62 per cent in 2021 off the depressed 2020 base, but still will be down almost 30 per cent compared to 2019. A full recovery to 2019 levels is not expected until 2023, one year later than previously forecast.
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