In The Long Run, We Are All Dead

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In The Long Run, We Are All Dead
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It was John Maynard Keynes, the British economist who, in his 1923 publication, ‘A Tract on Monetary Reform’, famously said: “But this long run is a

misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in the tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again.”

While the length of what constitutes the ‘long run’ will remain contentious, to say that the impact of an economic policy will be beneficial “in the long run”, presupposes that enduring current hardship is a necessary condition for the promised prosperity to occur. It also assumes that the sustenance of those policies and maintaining every other factor in the equation constant until the ‘long run’ is reached are necessary conditions for the supposed benefits of those policies to crystallize.

President Tinubu’s declaration on the day of his inauguration that “subsidy is gone” has been widely held as a bold initiative by many analysts. However, it remains debatable whether the manner in which the fuel subsidy was removed was the best for the economy. Again, owing largely to a belief that the fuel subsidy regime was mired in unbridled corruption, there seems to be an uncritical consensus that fuel subsidy must go in its entirety.

Two, following the wrong assumption that those defined as the poor would be the most adversely affected by the impact of removing fuel subsidy is an equally misleading belief that the impact of removal of fuel subsidy can be ameliorated through targeted cash transfers of $800m loan from the World Bank to the very poor. We are told that under the proposed cash transfer scheme, the ‘poorest households’ will each receive the sum of N5000 per month over six months.

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