[OPINION NY JULIUS OGUNRO] Forecasting Nigeria after the presidential election: Scenario 2, President Atiku Abubakar | TheCable
in 1993 when he was a serious contender for the Social Democratic Party’s presidential ticket. The SDP was one of the only two approved political parties at that time and Atiku missed being its flagbearer by the whisker.
Now, he is again the PDP’s presidential candidate and ready to battle the ruling APC and others for a chance to lead the country. Unlike in 2019, President Buhari who has a near-cult following in the north, the same region as Atiku, will not be on the ballot, leading some analysts to say this is Atiku’s best chance yet.
Such policies would, however, lead to hardship, job losses, and inflation. There would potentially be protests, strikes, and other forms of resistance to the Atiku government, at least in the short term. Particularly, the removal of petroleum subsidies would result in a jump in transportation and energy costs, causing spikes in the general prices of goods and services.
The southern political elite expects that after the administration of President Buhari, a northern Muslim, power would go down south, possibly, to a Christian. An Atiku presidency would be an affront to the principle of rotation of power and amount to tearing the book on the political partnership by the regions. This would no doubt cause the south to seriously worry about its fate in the Nigerian political system.
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