Eskom’s worst-case scenario for load-shedding over the next 12 months forecasts 11 days without rotational power cuts.
Eskom has provided a dismal outlook for its anticipated power system performance in the coming 12 months, with its worst-case scenario requiring 354 days of load-shedding.during a recent presentation to Parliament’s Joint Portfolio Committee on Public Enterprises and Mineral Resources.
In its latest outlook, Eskom assumes it will have 13,000MW of unavailable capacity throughout the year, a change from its previous approach, where it used 12,000MW of outages for the summer months. In the worst-case scenario, which assumes a base case plus 3,000MW of at-risk capacity, the utility would have to implement load-shedding on 354 days of the year.
For example, under the worst-case scenario, Eskom said it would have to burn R8.95 billion in diesel in December 2022 to avoid going higher than stage 3 load-shedding. That means under the medium risk case, the stage of load-shedding required would be higher than stage 2 for five out of 12 months.Over 23,000MW of new generation
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