Power utility Eskom has presented its system status and outlook to the joint portfolio committee on public enterprises and mineral resources and energy, outlining what it expects in terms of power capacity and maintenance over the next year.
The group noted that from 1 January to 29 August 2022, there have been 91 days of load shedding, with 18 days of load curtailment – load reduction obtained from customers who are able to reduce demand on instruction – at stage 1 and stage 2 and two days at stage 3.
The state firm stressed that its plan is “full” – meaning that there is very little room for error. “All reliability maintenance required in the 12-month planning period has been accommodated in the plan. This has resulted in a ‘full’ plan with little room to move, extend or add outages,” Eskom said.
In general, Eskom’s base outlook – best case scenario – is that unplanned outages can be kept at 13,000MW, with minimal use of gas to cover any shortfall. In this scenario, load shedding, if needed, will be kept to stage 1, and only implemented over 24 days. In the ‘worst case’ scenario – where unplanned outages exceed 16,000MW – load shedding at stage 3 and on occasion stage 4, is almost always in effect, and billions of rands are spent to generate power to cover the shortfall.
There is typically a 4,000MW variance in the Unplanned Capacity Load Factor , which cannot be predicted, it said – equivalent to stage 4 load shedding.
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