A scenario as destructive as Cyclone Tracy is unlikely to play out today thanks to vast technological improvements in cyclone tracking.
The morning of December 24, 1974, Darwin residents were preparing for Christmas festivities, completely oblivious that a powerful cyclone had just made a sharp, unforeseen turn and was bearing down on the city.Weather observations from the atmosphere and ocean are fed into the modelsTropical Cyclone Tracy struck Darwin early on Christmas morning, killing 65 people and causing about $800 million worth of damage.
The first warning that Darwin was under threat only came at lunchtime on Christmas Eve — about 12 hours before the onset of destructive winds — meaning residents had little time to prepare. But such a destructive scenario is unlikely to play out today as vast technological improvements in cyclone tracking mean the Bureau of Meteorology can warn of a cyclone's projected path and the likelihood of landfall several days in advance.
Computer weather models and the observational data upon which they rely have improved by an order of magnitude, giving communities far longer lead times to prepare for severe weather compared to Darwin 45 years ago.
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