Votes, violence and validity: Nigeria’s 2023 sub-national elections, By Jibrin Ibrahim

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Votes, violence and validity: Nigeria’s 2023 sub-national elections, By Jibrin Ibrahim
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On 18 March, following a one-week delay by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to enable it to comply with a Court of Appeal judgement, Nigerians returned to the polls to cast their ballots in governorship and state house of assembly elections. Voters in 28 states had the chance to elect new, or re-elect existing, […]

On 18 March, following a one-week delay by the Independent National Electoral Commission to enable it to comply with a Court of Appeal judgement, Nigerians returned to the polls to cast their ballots in governorship and state house of assembly elections. Voters in 28 states had the chance to elect new, or re-elect existing, governors in the 18of March vote, with the remaining eight states operating off-cycle processes, three of which are scheduled to take place later this year.

The conduct of these elections was also impacted by the increased levels of violent incidents and vote trading recorded. The patchy deployment of security personnel in states such as Bayelsa, Enugu and Bauchi reduced the ability or willingness of security agencies to intervene to prevent critical violent incidents has further undermined the credibility of this poll. Across the country 8% of observers noted there were no security personnel at their polling units.

In Kano, the value of goods, if not cash, was as high as N5,000, with 90% of observers reporting incidents of vote buying in the polling units they observed. In polling units in Dutse, Ringim and Birnin Kudu LGAs of Jigawa state observers highlighted that some voters were actively soliciting funds in exchange for their votes.

PDP candidates have so far been successful in: Akwa Ibom, Oyo, Bauchi, Delta and Enugu, States that the party controlled before the elections, with an incumbent re-elected in Oyo despite losing the state to the APC during the presidential elections. The New Nigeria People’s Party was also able to parlay its strong showing in the presidential election to win the governorship elections in Kano State while LP won in Abia.

Greater interest in state politics is also reflected in emerging data. Turnout for the three states there is full data for show increases when compared to the presidential: Akwa Ibom 27.8% versus 24.9%, Jigawa 44.8% versus 40.6% and Katsina 39.4% versus 31%.

A lot of the challenges confronting electoral democracy in Nigeria are the direct result of illegal and often criminal action taken by key members of the political class and their surrogates who violate the Electoral Act and other laws and regulations, engage in violence, murder, fraud, disruption of elections, hate speech and so on.

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