Opinion: Using Mathematics To Understand and Control the Coronavirus Pandemic, By Abba B. Gumel
By using rigorous mathematical analysis, coupled with data analytics to parameterise the models, the models can be used to first reproduce the observed trajectory of the disease and, consequently, be used to make predictions on the likely course of the disease…
Zoonotic scientists estimate that there are millions of viruses in the wild, and humans are always vulnerable to mutations in these zoonotic viruses that could trigger pandemics. HCoVs, rated among the most rapidly evolving viruses due their genetic makeup , have their origins in bats and rodents. Data shows that the evolution of HCoVs has been expedited in recent years due to urbanisation and poultry farming .
Now, we come to the COVID-19 situation in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa . The Nigerian Centre for Disease Control reported the first confirmed COVID-19 case in Nigeria on February 27. As of April 29, data from the website of the NCDC showed that Nigeria had recorded 1,278 confirmed cases and 51 deaths.
In the 1920s, distinguished Scottish scientists formulated the much-celebrated mathematical framework for modeling infectious diseases. Their modeling framework is based on stratifying the total human population into mutually-exclusive compartments based on infection status. The resulting mathematical models typically take the form of deterministic systems of nonlinear differential equations, involving a number of state variables and model parameters.
A crucial mathematical quantity of major public health interest is the basic reproduction number of the model . This is the most important number that public health practitioners, tasked with the control of an emerging disease or pandemic, wish to know as soon as possible. This number measures the average number of new cases of the disease generated by a typical infected individual if introduced into a completely susceptible population before he/she get cured or dies of the disease.
So, where do we go from here? The answer is mathematics to the rescue. I offer the following 10-point mathematical recipe for effectively controlling COVID-19 in Nigeria:I know this is very controversial and imposes severe strain on people. I get it. But I also know that, in the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral drug, our best bet is to do everything we can to limit community transmission.
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