ASEAN will look back at the unveiling of its Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) at the 34th Asean Summit in Bangkok last week as a moment of truth.
The 10-member regional grouping deserves credit for shedding light on its collective views on the Indo-Pacific – one of many sources of friction between the United States and China. While the AOIP broadly agrees with the propositions put forth by Australia, India, Japan and the US in viewing the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions as a seamless maritime space, it was also quick to stress that it is Asean that bridges the two entities.
Don’t get me wrong. I am not ceding ground to the mistaken view that centrality is a myth. What I am lamenting is the fact that Asean has taken centrality for granted for far too long and, as a result, has not invested additional political capital to build on the foundations of the region’s most comprehensive and sustainable fora, such as the East Asia Summit and Asean Defence Ministerial Meeting Plus.
Such concerns are also widespread across Asean. A 2018 ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey showed that 45.4% of Asean respondents think that “China will become a revisionist power with an intent to turn South-east Asia into its sphere of influence”. At its core, Asean centrality rests on its acceptance by the major powers. The days where being the weakest and non-threatening are the only criteria for being the most “acceptable” entity by the major powers to perform the role of facilitator for regional discourse and cooperation are numbered, if not over.
This strategic dilemma has been anathema to Asean, as explained by Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong towards the conclusion of Singapore’s Asean chairmanship in 2018. “It is very desirable for us not to have to take sides, but the circumstances may come where Asean may have to choose one or the other. I hope it does not happen soon,” he said.
Shifting the focus from “taking sides” to “taking positions” allows Asean to regain the initiative in the regional discourse in three important respects.
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