The war in Tigray was like a crime of passion; the Eritreans and Oromos joined their old Ahmaric adversaries to annihilate the Tigrayans.
The peace agreement needs follow up talks and implementation steps. But it is unclear whether there will be goodwill on all sides or it is just an agreement to buy time. As it stands today, the elites of the three main nationalities, Amhara, Tigray, and now Oromo, have tasted power and may want to dominate others which would lead to future armed conflicts.
It was this latest carnage, the unceasing siege on Tigray, and the employment of starvation on the Tigrayans that forced a ceasefire brokered by an African Union team led by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo. The Tigrayan elites, who had ruled the country since 1991, did not seem to have realised that power had changed hands. So, they committed two serious blunders in 2020. First, in defiance of the central government, they held parliamentary elections, which had been postponed across the country due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Then when this led to rumblings, the TPLF, on 3 November, 2020, carried out a pre-emptive strike against the national army command in the region.
Tigray, which had in March made the lifting of the blockade against it and unfettered trade as conditions for peace talks, was in no position to give conditions by September. The government also agreed to ensure that Tigray is represented in federal institutions, including the parliament. This is vital to reintegration. Although the issue is whether the centre would trust the Tigrayans enough to let them, at least in the short term, return to sensitive posts.
To complete the defeat of the Tigray region, TPLF fighters will enter a disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme. Additionally, the Ethiopian military will return to the Tigray regional capital, Mekelle, to take control.
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