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Elections in Nigeria this year might be nearly over but the war by other means could well receive fresh fire from three state elections this weekend.
But they are not. These three off-cycle elections are in fact products of either violent electoral outcomes or bitterly fought court decisions. Apart from the post-election chaos that Nigeria has had to deal with, on a good day, each of the three states on their own, is a political cauldron – a nightmare for organisers, participants and observers alike.
Labour has vowed to avenge the black-eye its president, Joe Ajaero, received at the hands of security personnel allegedly at the behest of Uzodimma. It has announced aBayelsa is chaotic in its own way. Though the state managed to survive the turbulence after the forced removal of Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha in 2005, its brand of violence has often stemmed from an explosive mix of hostage taking and crude oil politics.
In a country where incumbency is a rock to be circumnavigated, the records suggest that unseating an incumbent takes more than guts. Among the miserable tally of incumbents that failed a reelection bid, were Mohammed Abubakar of Bauchi , Ramalan Yero of Kaduna , Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi of Zamfara , Ikedi Ohakim of Imo , and current junior Minister of Defence, Bello Matawalle . If performance mattered there would probably have been more.
Political campaigns, if they have existed at all, have been a joke. Politicians in the three states where elections would hold have been making scandalous promises ranging from free tickets to European job fares, to promises to turn water to wine. No one wants to hear about glitches, attempted hacking, failing batteries or poor networks. The bulk of the complaints in the last general elections, which later became the subject of litigation, have been about INEC’s competence, credibility and the transparency of the process.
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