Opinion: Our Population Lies Are Catching Up With Us, By ‘Tope Fasua
I have shown my triangulated evidence above. Something in the region of 120 million may be closer to the truth. If this is so, it is for our own good. If we project from 120 million, then Nigeria’s population will end up at 414 million by the year 2100, using my more conservative assumptions.
I plugged in the figure on MS Excel and did a mini Monte Carlo simulation. Running at 3 per cent growth rate per annum, Nigeria’s population would have grown to over 2 billion by 2100, not even 750 million! In order to achieve a figure of around 710 million, I had to drop the growth rate of our 200 million odd population to 2 per cent from 3 per cent from about eight years from now, and further to 1 per cent from around 2056, till the end of the period, 2100. Populations do expand fast.
I have shown my triangulated evidence above. Something in the region of 120 million may be closer to the truth. If this is so, it is for our own good. If we project from 120 million, then Nigeria’s population will end up at 414 million by the year 2100, using my more conservative assumptions. This is a huge figure, but less frightening. I doubt very much if the entity called Nigeria will still be around in its present state by the year 2100 anyway.
I think this is a good point to address those who take delight in populating the world by sowing their wild oats. You may be causing real trouble for the world. I would have argued that population will decline in parts of Nigeria – for I have conducted surveys in the past that shows that most of today’s adults have fewer children than their parents.
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