+34Despite widespread frustration with Bola Tinubu's government, structural and macroeconomic reforms may improve Nigeria's long-term prospects. Incumbency, governing-party resources, voter turnout and opposition fragmentation could nevertheless keep the president electorally competitive.
October 3, 2026 8:40 am“ Nigeria ns dislike their president, but may re-elect him anyway. ” Whatever one’s personal opinion of President Bola Tinubu, the article makes an important observation about Nigeria’s current political environment: an incumbent president can remain electorally competitive even when there is considerable dissatisfaction with his government.
Incumbency, the machinery of the governing party, access to political resources, voter turnout and, importantly, the fragmentation of the opposition all matter in a presidential election. Nigerians have every right to express their frustration. There is no doubt that many Nigerians are experiencing genuine economic difficulties, and people should be free to criticise the government. But another point also needs to be madeNigeria is undergoing significant structural reforms, particularly on the macroeconomic front.
There is no doubt that such reforms can impose considerable short-term pain on citizens. Many Nigerians understandably find the consequences difficult to bear. Yet serious economists have also argued that Nigeria’s economic position left the country with difficult choices if it was going to restore macroeconomic stability, improve public finances and create the conditions for sustainable growth.
Regardless of one’s personal views about President Tinubu, the economic direction his administration has taken appears, in my view, to offer one of the more viable paths towards restoring Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability and putting the country on a more sustainable growth trajectory. It is therefore not surprising that international rating agencies and financial institutions have begun to view Nigeria’s economic outlook more positively and to take the reform effort more seriously. People are free to disagree with this assessment.
Indeed, they should. But disagreement should be based on facts, competing economic arguments and evidence rather than hostility towards anyone who reaches a different conclusion. Unfortunately, there appears to be a growing level of hostility and misinformation on social media, particularly among some individuals sympathetic to Mr. Peter Obi and commonly identified as “Obidients. ” My concern is not that Nigerians should stop criticising the government.
Far from it. Robust criticism is an essential part of any healthy democracy. My concern is the manner in which political disagreement is increasingly being converted into personal hostility. This is particularly noticeable in the South-East, where people who argue that the region needs to adopt a more pragmatic approach to national politics are sometimes maligned, attacked or called names.
Many of the politicians and individuals being criticised have nothing personal against Peter Obi. They may simply have reached a different political conclusion about what they believe is in the interest of the South-East and Nigeria. The question of the relationship between Peter Obi and some of his online supporters has been raised before. In 2024, Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka spoke about his experience with what he described as the “Obidient” online movement.
Soyinka recalled a meeting with Obi in which, according to his account, Obi appeared conciliatory and told him, in substance, not to worry about the “Obidients. ” Soyinka said Obi subsequently took out his phone and typed a message, after which the atmosphere of the meeting became “nice and cosy.
” Soyinka interpreted the experience as evidence of some form of relay mechanism through which influential people could mobilise online supporters.what responsibility does a political leader have for the conduct of a movementThat question has become even more relevant because the hostility is not always directed at politicians. A few days ago, Adaora Soludo, daughter of Anambra State Governor Chukwuma Soludo, posted a photograph on Facebook apparently celebrating the progress she has made in her fashion business.
The post, as presented, contained no obvious political message. Yet the comment section reportedly attracted hostile political comments from people who appeared sympathetic to Mr. Peter Obi. Whether those comments came from organised supporters or simply individuals acting independently is a separate question. What is troubling is how easily an ordinary personal or professional post can become an arena for political hostility.
Following statements issued by the Anambra State Government concerning Peter Obi’s public comments about whether he left debt or liabilities when he left office as governor, there were extensive online exchanges. On one occasion, a person who appeared to support Obi used a road project being constructed entirely by the Chairman of Orumba South Local Government as an example of allegedly substandard infrastructure under Governor Soludo.
When I attempted to provide an engineering explanation on Facebook, I was called a “Temu Professor” and a “half-baked” professor, apparently after the commenter discovered my professional background in engineering. Political debate should not turn into political warfare. A person can disagree with the government without insulting everyone who disagrees with him. A person can support Peter Obi without believing that everyone who does not support him is corrupt, unintelligent, compromised or anti-Igbo.
Equally, a person can support President Tinubu without believing that every critic of the administration is an enemy of Nigeria. Recent events in Warri also illustrate just how emotionally charged Nigeria’s political environment has become. Reports from October 1, 2026 said that some participants at a planned five-kilometre Independence Day run at PTI Junction in Warri objected to “Soft Nigeria” shirts bearing or incorporating President Bola Tinubu’s image.
Videos circulating online appeared to show some participants tearing the shirts, with some reports alleging that shirts were also burned, while people chanted “Obi! Obi! Obi! ” Whatever one’s political affiliation, this kind of political symbolism should concern all of us when it begins to normalise hostility towards fellow Nigerians simply because they support a different political candidate.
Peter Obi is a politician. Like every other politician, he is entitled to aspire to the highest office in the land. But he is also not infallible. Politicians make claims that can be challenged, corrected or disproved.
Political support should therefore not require supporters to abandon logical argument. There are legitimate questions about Obi’s economic positions and the consistency with which some of his positions have been communicated. His statements on fuel subsidy, for example, have generated debate over whether his position has changed over time. His positions on issues such as state police, security and economic management also deserve serious examination rather than being treated as matters beyond criticism.
. It is equally legitimate for another Nigerian to examine his proposals and reach a different conclusion.argument cease to matter. An Igbo person does not have to support an Igbo candidate simply because he is Igbo, just as a Yoruba, Hausa, Fulani or other Nigerian does not have to support a candidate because of ethnicity or religion.
Some Igbo political leaders have argued that the region should engage pragmatically with the Tinubu administration and seek concrete political commitments that could strengthen the prospects of an eventual Igbo presidency when the political circumstances become more favourable. I believe this is a more pragmatic position for the region to consider. Unfortunately, others strongly disagree and believe that the region should support Peter Obi irrespective of the immediate political consequences.
While this position may carry significant political risks, it deserves to be debated openly and vigorously. What is important is that the debate should be conducted in a mature and constructive manner, with the long-term political interests of the Igbo people placed above short-term emotions and partisan divisions. Senator David Umahi, for example, has campaigned strongly for President Tinubu and has consequently faced criticism from some Obi supporters.
Some of that criticism has gone beyond disagreement into accusations of betrayal because he is an Igbo politician supporting a non-Igbo presidential candidate. An Igbo politician can support Tinubu. An Igbo politician can support Obi. Another can support Atiku or another candidate.
The same principle should apply to politicians from every other part of Nigeria. The South-East’s political challenge is therefore much larger than the question of which individual candidate wins the affection of the region. The 2023 presidential election demonstrated the enormous concentration of Peter Obi’s support in the South-East. But concentration of votes in one region is not the same thing as national political power.
Nigeria’s presidential electoral system requires broad geographical support, and the fragmentation of opposition forces can significantly affect the conversion of regional support into national political influence. This is why the South-East’s political debate should be much more sophisticated than simply asking who is “our man. ” The region needs political leaders who can negotiate, build alliances and maintain relationships across Nigeria. It needs people who can disagree without permanently burning bridges.
Whether one agrees entirely with that proposition or not, there is a practical truth behind it: in a multiparty democracy, political isolation has consequences. President Tinubu is the incumbent president. His administration controls the machinery of the federal government, while the opposition remains divided among different political interests and personalities. Whatever one’s personal assessment of his government, these are political realities that cannot simply be wished away.
If the present political configuration persists, the South-East must ask itself an important question:Political campaigns end. Governments change. Alliances shift. Politicians who are bitter opponents today can become political partners tomorrow.
If the South-East approaches every disagreement as a permanent political war, it may find itself having destroyed relationships that could become important to the region’s future. If, on the other hand, the region engages with every administration pragmatically while continuing to defend its interests, it preserves room to negotiate. If the South-East chooses a particular political path, it should do so consciously and with an understanding of both its immediate benefits and its longer-term consequences.
Like most politicians, Peter Obi has at different times referred warmly to people who support him even when those individuals previously opposed him. Politicians understand that today’s opponent can become tomorrow’s ally. Nigeria will still exist after the 2027 election. Peter Obi will still exist.
Bola Tinubu will still exist. Atiku Abubakar and the other political actors will still exist. The South-East, in particular, cannot afford to burn every political bridge because of a presidential contest. Its future depends not only on who wins an election but also on its ability to negotiate effectively with whoever holds political power.
And if political history teaches us anything, it is that today’s political calculations can become tomorrow’s political realities very quickly. The 2027 election will come and go. Political fortunes will rise and fall. But the South-East will remain part of Nigeria, and its long-term interests will remain larger than any single presidential election. Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of TheCable.
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