NESG Predicts 7․3% Decline in Nigeria’s GDP in 2020
Nigerian Economic Summit Group has predicted that the Nigerian economy would contract by 7.3 per cent in 2020 if the average crude oil price slumps to $15 per barrel in 2020 and Nigeria’s crude oil output averaged 1.3 million barrels per day .
The group said the occurrence of the worst-case scenario would drive the country’s real GDP deeper into recession. The report noted that this scenario would be above the revised 2020 budget benchmark and the best-case projection would thrive on the assumption that the spread of COVID-19 would be contained to enable major economies to resume production while the tension between Saudi Arabia and Russia would be resolved with an agreement to cut oil output.
“Investment will decline by 39.4 per cent in 2020 as much investment would have gone into social security and palliatives. Government revenue will plunge by 40 per cent in 2020 as oil and non-oil revenues are constrained. Inflation averages 15 per cent in 2020 sequel to the global supply chain and devaluation of naira from N306 per dollar to N360 per dollar,” NESG said.
NESG stated that the outbreak of the COVID-19, with its attendant restriction on economic activities and severe impact on the oil market would reverse Nigeria’s growth of 2.3 per cent that was achieved in 2019.
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