Naira redesign policy: Nigeria's GDP to contract by N10trn in Q1 2023, says Yemi Kale | TheCable nairaredesign
on Tuesday, Kale projected that the country’s GDP would reduce by about N10 trillion to N15 trillion due to the CBN currency redesign policy which led to a nationwide cash scarcity.
“I am estimating a reduction in Q1 2023 nominal GDP by between N10-15 trillion due to challenges sourcing cash in Q1 2023,” Kale tweeted.“This is because about 40 percent of Nigeria’s N198 trillion GDP in 2022 is informal of which about 90 percent is cash-based. Further 30 percent of formal sector GDP is cash-based. This means N106.9 trillion of the total too is cash-based.
“Of the 46 economic activities, agriculture, some manufacturing activities , trade, arts entertainment and recreation, accommodation and food services, road and water transport and other services are expected to be the most affected.“The idea is to do a cost-benefit analysis looking at the overall impact of any policy and how and when it is to be implemented, across the economy and not just in one or a few areas and deciding if overall, the benefits outweigh costs.
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