HAVING persistently frittered away opportunities to attain growth and sustainable development, the new forecast by the International Monetary Fund that a third of the global economy will slip back into recession in 2023 is a disquieting portent for Nigeria’s economy.
Similarly, the World Bank has trimmed its forecast for many regions. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, it pegs sub-Saharan Africa’s per capital income growth over 2023-24 at 1.2 per cent. This spells trouble for Nigeria.
Ever before the warning by IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, Nigeria’s economy had been beset by ills – from high inflation to the forex crisis and steep unemployment to shabby infrastructure. The energy riddle is ever present. Insecurity, a long-running petrol crunch, and high interest rates complete the depressing picture.
“Even countries that are not in recession, it would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people,” said the IMF chief. She bases her prognosis of a fresh global recession on Russia’s war in Ukraine, higher interest rates, a new surge in the spread of COVID-19 in China, and deceleration of the United States, European Union, and Chinese economies.
In June 2022, the development lender had forecast the global economy at 3.0 per cent in 2023. It has reviewed this downward with a new estimate of 1.7 per cent. It is reckoned that this is the slowest projection outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions since 1993.
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