If the main goal of sanctions is to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine, they’ve failed. It’s not obvious they’ve even curbed Vladimir Putin’s behaviour, writes Economics Correspondent Eoin Burke-Kennedy via irishtimesbiz
Western leaders talked about an ‘all-out economic and financial war’ but several indicators suggest the Russian economy is performing reasonably wellRussian president Vladimir Putin chairing a meeting on the situation in the oil and gas sector at a state residence outside Moscow. A complete withdrawal of Russian energy supply, with the possibility of blackouts, and a full-blown recession across Europe is now more likely than not.
Separately, the rouble, often seen as a proxy stock price for the Russian economy, is now trading close to a four-year high against the dollar.In the days after the invasion and the onset of sanctions, the currency nosedived. The number of roubles to one US dollar fell from about 78 to 138 – a huge move in the world of foreign exchange and a catastrophe for those whose wealth was denominated in the currency.
Sanction strategists argue that while the measures appear to have limited power in curbing current behaviour they act as a deterrent against future aggression, which is cold comfort for the Ukrainians. They argue that if a similar level of sanctioning was imposed after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea the current dynamic might have been avoided.
A complete withdrawal of Russian energy supply, with the possibility of blackouts, and a full-blown recession across Europe is now more likely than not.
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