This newspaper described China’s reopening as the biggest economic event of the year. So why has it had such a small effect on prices?
Some suspect the recovery is weaker than the official statistics portray. Analysts at China Beige Book, which relies on independent surveys to track the country’s economy, told clients they were “snickering” at official figures showing that retail sales surged by 10.6% in March compared with the previous year.
What is true of retail sales is true of the broader economy. The recovery from last year’s nadir is real and robust. But the recovery to pre-pandemic trends is partial and uneven. China spent much longer under lockdowns than America. It may therefore have further to go before it returns to anything like full capacity. Take property. Although sales this year are stronger than they were late last year, especially in the big cities, they remain far weaker than in 2021 or even 2020.
China’s reopening has departed from the script in other ways, too. In America, workers armed with “stimmy” cheques from the government felt able to cut their hours, quit their jobs or badger their bosses for better pay. There was much talk of a “Great Resignation”. China’s households have had no such luck. They received little direct help from the government under its zero-covid regime.
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