Nigeria first voted in presidential elections just over 43 years ago in October 1979. The introduction to this form of government was not very auspicious. Four years into the experience, in December 1983, Muhammadu Buhari, then a Major-General in the Nigerian Army, overthrew the system. Soldiers thereafter ran the barn for another 14 and a […]
reported on 8 January 2023 that the conduct of elections could be precluded in hundreds of locations in up to 14 States around the country.reported an assessment by Nigeria’s security services indicating that insecurity could preclude the conduct of elections in 686 communities or wards located in at least “
Even if voting eventually were to occur in many of these places, the violence could have such a chilling effect as to mar election administration or deplete turn out. Voters, afraid for their personal security, may choose other things to do or simply lie low in their places of abode rather than turn out and risk fatal consequence.
But there could also be a more challenging scenario where the number of affected units or voters in a state may be such as to impinge on the question whether or not a particular candidate could or could not have made 25% of the votes cast. The question whether the elections go to a run-off or not, could depend on whether insecurity precluded “substantial compliance” is a handful of states. That will be legal uncharted territory.