Market Questions is the FT’s guide to the week ahead
email rounding up the latestOil prices are rising and retailers’ summer sales are ending, yet most economists expect inflation in the eurozone to fall to nearly a two-year low in September when official data is released on Friday.
A sharp slowdown in transport services inflation is expected owing to last year’s German €9 monthly travel ticket dropping out of the annual comparison from this month. The ECB is particularly focused on core inflation — excluding energy and food — to get a better handle on underlying price pressures. Anna Titareva, an economist at UBS, predicted this measure would drop from 5.3 per cent to 4.6 per cent, its lowest in over a year.US Treasury yields have risen to their highest levels in a decade and a half after strong data and a hawkish Federal Reserve pushed investors to bet that interest rates would stay higher for longer.
Economic figures scheduled to be published next week — including Case-Shiller house prices for July on Tuesday and personal consumption expenditure data on Friday — could move markets as investors scrutinise any evidence that may support another Fed increase. The BoE surprised a majority of economists when it held rates at 5.25 per cent on Thursday in what had been a knife edge decision among its monetary policy committee, pushing the pound lower.
The pound was trading at $1.2244 on Friday, 6.7 per cent lower than its peak in July. It had been the best performing G10 currency leading into the summer and is now up only 1.2 per cent against the dollar since the start of the year.
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