COVID-19 modelling is guiding our pandemic response. But how does it work and what limitations does it have? We asked the experts.
Rarely spoken of in everyday conversations before the pandemic, infectious disease and vaccine modelling has been vital in informing governments how to shape their coronavirus response and in motivating the public to abide by restrictions.However, the experts behind the numbers say people should not use modelling like crystal balls.
They are constantly updated as new data becomes available and as new scenarios eventuate, which in an outbreak, can happen quickly. “That’s useful because you’re seeing rising control of your vaccine coverage offset against easing restrictions. We can see how well the model fits as we go.”Experts warn it’s important to not rely too heavily on models or to over-interpret them.“It’s about how we can use a model to think through what policies we want to make. It’s a subtle, but important distinction,” he says.
On its website, the Burnet Institute lists its optimistic assumptions as schools being able to achieve a 50 per cent reduction in transmission risk through ventilation and other measures; no waning of vaccine immunity over time; ongoing compliance with restrictions; vaccinated people continuing to quarantine for 14 days if identified as contacts; 95 per cent compliance with vaccine mandates; and vaccines being delivered equally across all sub-population groups.
“If you step into a situation where you have the worst case scenarios - a vulnerable group of people, low vaccination rates, mixing in a way that increases transmission risk - and the virus gets there, that’s not going to fit a model that’s based on average vaccination rates, even if they’re at 90 per cent," she said.
For example, it suggests relatively low numbers of infections and deaths once Australia reaches 80 per cent vaccination coverage with ongoing restrictions in place. Meanwhile, the UK has witnessed consistently high numbers of infections and deaths at that vaccination target. “We still have pretty stringent capacity restrictions and density requirements that are still going to be in place at 80 per cent. I expect there will be a lot less [infections and deaths] than what we’ve seen overseas just due to those continuing restrictions.”
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