On Thursday, Nigeria's Sustainability Committee, led by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, submitted its report to President Muhammadu Buhari, saying Nigeria is facing its most serious economic trouble ever.
On Thursday, Nigeria’s Sustainability Committee, led by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, submitted its report to President Muhammadu Buhari, saying Nigeria is facing its most serious economic trouble ever.
For Nigeria, this is a multilayered quandary: a health crisis, a near-total shutdown of economic activities, capital flow reversals and a fast increasing unemployment rate, fuelled by layoffs in almost all sectors of the economy. In effect, our major sources of foreign exchange are gravely threatened and our external reserves get little or nothing by way of augmentation. Rather, they are being depleted for external payments and importation.
we should be prepared, at best, for companies reporting losses or seeking tax payment deferment, while government finds a way of shoring up businesses. The revenue outlook for the rest of 2020 is depicted in Tables I-IV, showing scenarios for oil prices at $30 per barrel, $25 per barrel, if oil prices average $30 over the rest of the year, estimated oil revenues would amount to N88.4bn monthly. At the same time, if non-oil revenues are sustained at the lower level projected in the revised budget estimates, then average monthly allocations to FAAC for the rest of the year would only be about N485bn a month.
In an optimistic scenario, with an average price of $30 per barrel of crude oil in 2020 and a stimulus of up to N3.6tn, growth will still decline by -0.42% in 2020, possibly rising to 3.03% in 2021 and 5.17% by 2025. A lower stimulus of N2.3tn or 1.5% of GDP at the same oil price of $30 per barrel will result in a fall in output of -0.59% in 2020 and a resumption of growth to 2.54% in 2021.
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