Global Trade Set To Shrink 18.5% In Q2, Defying Worst Fears – WTO

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Global Trade Set To Shrink 18.5% In Q2, Defying Worst Fears – WTO
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Global Trade Set To Shrink 18.5% In Q2, Defying Worst Fears – WTO

Global trade is expected to drop around 18.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020 in a huge coronavirus-driven plunge which nonetheless could have been much worse, the WTO said Tuesday.

The global trade body said that in the first quarter, the volume of merchandise trade shrank by three percent year‑on‑year. “The fall in trade we are now seeing is historically large — in fact, it would be the steepest on record. But there is an important silver lining here — it could have been much worse,” said outgoing WTO director-general Roberto Azevedo.In its annual trade forecast issued on April 20, the WTO forecast volumes would contract by between 13 percent at best and 32 percent at worst in 2020.

“However, looking ahead to 2021, adverse developments, including a second wave of COVID‑19 outbreaks, weaker than expected economic growth, or widespread recourse to trade restrictions, could see trade expansion fall short of earlier projections.”

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