Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
“We think the next global EPS recession is about to begin, the 8th in the past 50 years. Our models suggest the MSCI World index is already pricing in a 5-10% earnings contraction, well below the 5% increase predicted by the analyst consensus for 2023. A global EPS recession similar to the last 7 would imply a further 20-30% off the MSCI World.
“All but cast aside as a serious economic indicator in the past few decades, the money supply has returned with a vengeance this year. In days of yore, the BoC used to focus on a broad measure, specifically M2++. When inflation was low in the period from the early 1990s up to 2020, the relationship between money supply and inflation didn’t look particularly robust, so it was typically ignored.
“The idea behind the new work was to use an electrical current to simplify the process. The standard leaching relies on the flow of an ion-rich solution through the ore to move the rare earth elements out of it. But once that solution displaces these elements from the ore, they return to being ions in a solution. In that state, an electrical current should drive them to the oppositely charged electrode.
This sort of electricity-driven purification has been used to decontaminate soils with high levels of metals. But it’s not been tried on this sort of mining before. The idea worked even better than the researchers expected.”
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