Despite the global drive for energy security, global emissions from fossil fuels are expected to peak within the next two years.
The inflection point for fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions is nigh, with emissions on track to peak by 2025, according to Rystad Energy research and analysis. On the current global pathway of announced policies, projects, industry trends and expected technological advancements, global CO2 emissions are poised to hit about 39 gigatonnes per year in 2025 before settling into a steady annual decline as industries clean up their carbon footprint.
As a sign of things to come, direct CO2 emissions – carbon dioxide originating from fossil fuel combustion at the plants worldwide – from power and heat generation will peak this year. The decline will be minimal initially before gathering momentum in the coming years, becoming a significant factor behind the decrease in total CO2 emissions from all sectors by 2025.
Global industrial emissions last year stayed flat at ~9.95 Gtpa as post-Covid recovery in China was offset by a visible decline in Chinese industrial carbon intensity. Despite these setbacks, the power and heating sector is expected to drive the upcoming fossil CO2 decline from mid-decade onwards. In 2023, the addition of renewable generation capacity is projected to outstrip the uptick in electricity demand. From 2025, annual renewable generation additions will start materially affecting total fossil fuel output. This trend will also accompany continuous coal-to-gas switching .
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