Five charts that will define real estate and housing in 2022

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Five charts that will define real estate and housing in 2022
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Chart Week 2022: The price of housing is ballooning; and demand is up but construction is down

of $241K. Renewals in 2023 are forecast to see rate increases of about 45 bps, or around $65, in additional monthly payments. While no one wants to pay more on their mortgage, Canadian borrowers are set to absorb higher rates: under federally mandated stress tests, they had to show that they could cope with rates around 180 bps higher when they contracted mortgages nearly five years ago on larger principals.

This chart shows that house prices in Toronto, Vancouver and nationally have grown about 4.25 to almost five times, with household debt keeping pace. That rate of increase is above seven per cent per year. Yet, the CPI measurement of housing costs known as “shelter” has only inched ahead, growing by about 1.6 times. Most of the time that growth has been less than two per cent per year.

Amid the many staggering economic statistics that emerged from the pandemic, this may be the most staggering: in the first three quarters of 2021, residential construction accounted for a larger share of Canadian GDP than did business investment. That has never happened before, not even close.

That’s what’s happening with real estate. From April 2020 to October 2021, Canada saw about 246,500 excess home sales above the trend. In contrast, new listings came in higher, but just 85,800 homes above trend—far lower than the boost in home sales.

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macleans /  🏆 19. in CA

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