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DALLAS, Oct 11 - The"golden path" some Federal Reserve officials see leading to lower inflation without high unemployment may, like the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, prove hard to find as they navigate a world of fast-adjusting markets and a new Middle East war.
"I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday."I think there is a possible path there. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market."
Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 19-20 meeting, which are due to be released at 2 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, may shed light on the risks Fed officials see to the"soft landing" many feel is coming into view at the end of the"golden path," the term coined by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in July. The U.S. government on Friday released a jobs report that showed employers continued in September to hire at an arguably unsustainable pace, adding 336,000 positions or roughly triple what's needed for the labor market to tread water. That was a blow to the Fed's hopes that its aggressive rate hikes since March 2022 would have had more impact on labor markets by now.
Jefferson, for example, said he has become wary about the degree to which sustained high market rates of interest will bite as more companies and households have to refinance loans taken out when rates were low: A credit-driven hammer still waiting to drop. But at best the picture has gotten cloudier, said Christina Romer, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former head of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers. Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed.
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