The stormy clouds of war are gathering ominously over the dreary landscape of the Sahel after troops of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) yesterday stated its readiness to participate in a standby force that is preparing to intervene in the Republic of Niger.
Ghana’s Chief of Defence Staff, Vice Admiral Seth Amoama and Ghana’s Defence Minister, Dominic Nitiwul poses for a group photo with Economic Community of West African State delegates during the Extraordinary meeting of ECOWAS in Accra, Ghana, on August 17, 2023. – West African military chiefs met in Ghana on August 17, 2023 to coordinate a possible armed intervention to reverse a coup in Niger, as Germany called for EU sanctions against the rebel leaders.
At yesterday’s meeting in Ghana’s capital, Accra, the defence chiefs said they are prepared to reinstate the democratic order in Niger. The Accra meeting of top army commanders, which continues today, is coming after fresh violence in Niger, with jihadists killing at least 17 soldiers in an ambush. According to Reuters, ECOWAS commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, Abdel-Fatau Musah, said: “Let no one be in doubt if everything else fails, the valiant forces of West Africa are ready to answer to the call of duty. By all means available, constitutional order will be restored in the country,” listing past ECOWAS deployments in The Gambia, Sierra Leone and Liberia as examples of readiness.
For clarity, such a force would be expected to not only remove the current military junta but also hold territory. This is clearly impossible for a force of a mere 5,000 troops. Further muddying the waters of uncertainty is that there is no clear indication of how much support the junta has amongst the local population.
The Pentagon is evaluating what authorities it can use to continue to operate in a primarily intelligence gathering role in Niger if the military takeover is deemed a coup d’etat by the State Department – a legal determination that would strip the U.S. military of some of its authorities and funding to engage in security cooperation with Nigerien forces.
Analysts say any ECOWAS intervention against Niger’s coup leaders would be militarily and politically risky, and the bloc has said it prefers a diplomatic outcome. “Aside from the fact that these guys are our brothers, need I also remind Mr. President that the country is already fragile. Two days ago, the insurgents resurrected, shooting down the Air Force airplane in Niger State, and they are seriously vandalising our rail tracks presently. So, we should use our armies to protect the country’s infrastructure instead of pushing them to war.”
“In 2022 alone, France imported almost 18000 tons of uranium from Niger to power its nuclear plants. The announcement by the junta to stop uranium exports to Paris undermines French energy security. Second, given the 2022 attack on the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, there is also a US$ 13 billion gas pipeline bringing in gas from Nigeria via Niger and Morocco to Europe.
“The coup in Niger is not a wholly Nigerien matter. What of France’s access to Niger’s uranium? What of the gas pipeline running through Niger to Europe? What of the presence of US and French troops in Niger? What of the junta’s invitation to the Wagner group? Given these issues, and with time fast running out, the prospect for further conflict is sadly more probable than peace,” the scholar concluded.
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