If you want a capsule of the story of COVID-19 at this time, you can’t do much better than to read of a friend’s recent experience.
The New York City resident lived through one of the worst outbreaks in the world, and hence one of the strictest lockdowns. By June, the cloud had lifted. The infection rate had plummeted to one of the lowest in the country. And with that came a lifting of the lockdown.
Actually, some governments share the blame for going too far or too quickly. For example, it defies logic to allow bars and nightclubs to open while the virus still raged. But ultimately, it is individuals’ common sense and self-control that are the decisive factors. Problem is that even when they are asymptomatic after contracting the virus, they take it home to more vulnerable family members. So, the infection rate spiked. Not surprisingly, states such as Florida, Texas and California that are most popular with fun seekers are also experiencing the worst resurgence.
The US surge is quite in contrast with the trend elsewhere in the world. According to a chart in the New York Times early in July, neighbouring Canada has the lowest rate of weekly infection, followed by the European Union. And so they have kept discretionary travel to and from the US embargoed even as they open up to each other.
However, such statistics can be misleading. Doubling doesn’t mean much if the starting point is low. For example, a country whose case rose from 200 to 400 has doubled its case, but it is still remarkably low. The hypothetical country can double several more times without reaching a point of crisis. This is not the basis for complacency, but for optimism.
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