Nigeria’s low infection and fatalities are loss leaders. They correlate her rather huge testing gap; limited contact tracing, and voluntary acknowledgement of infections.
In one week, Africa garnered a 43% jump in its Covid-19 cases. These numbers are relative to Nigeria despite her recorded numerical being low. Policymakers must bear these worrying facts in mind. Our national response must henceforth be robust as Nigeria’s pandemic exponential surge has commenced. To mitigate the scope of fatalities, Nigeria’s leadership must recalibrate, seek bi-partisan measures and act boldly in order to avert a possible systemic collapse.
Prospective high fatalities aside, the Covid-19 pandemic has unfathomable national security implications for Nigeria. It will push Nigeria’s so-called “poorest of the poor” well beyond the desperate poverty threshold. If that happens, the ripple effect might include the triggering uncontrollable civil disobedience and food riots. The latter, could predicate and also precipitate inconceivable get-even reprisals from long disenfranchised masses against the national elite.
The federal government and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control remain seemingly blind to census of asymptomatic carriers. They are also oblivious of the cumulative R-Value; the number of people being infected daily by unidentified infected persons. The unseen and undocumented numbers are at least 10 times the published infected and death figures and rising by the hour. Sadly, most Nigerians continue to exhibit a false sense of security by not observing mitigation measures responsibly.
Nigeria’s present challenges will be further compounded by national revenue from oil sales having just tanked. Her Bonny light oil is selling at $12 per barrel and no one is buying. Recently the federal government drew $150m from the Sovereign Wealth Fund leaving a balance of $210m, with the Excess Crude Account at $72.2m, and the badly depleted external reserves now at $33.9bn. Invariably, even as Federal Account Allocation Committee doled out N780.
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