Opinion: Climate Change and Conflict In West Africa (1), By Rafiq Raji
Climate change is the long-term modification of the Earth’s climate resulting from atmospheric changes and interactions among the atmosphere and other geological, chemical, biological, and spatial factors within the Earth’s powerful energy system. Climate scientists who collect and analyze information about our planet and climate on a global scale report an accelerating global rise in average temperature from the late 19th century to the present, nearing one degree Celsius.
Figure 1: Schematic representation of relationships between climate change & conflict [Adapted from Brown, et al . Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa. International Affairs 83: 6 1141–1154] The consequences of climate change vary with the context. As climate change impacts the world’s physical landscape, it alters our geopolitical structure. For example, drought will increase competition for a diminishing amount of fertile land. Combined with other market forces, scarcity leads to price rises that generate conflict among supply and demand resources, which may result in resource and political conflict , especially when prices rise faster than incomes.
Several studies find evidence of strong links between climate shocks and conflict. One reports that the risk of armed conflict increases when water is scarce. Another researcher finds that a standard deviation increase in temperature raises the risk of interpersonal conflict by 2.4 per cent and intergroup conflict by 11.3 per cent. Severe drought and water variability owing to climate change are found to cause conflict among farmers and pastoralists in several African countries.
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