After a string of speeches from both sides in the run up to the Ukraine invasion anniversary, the situation seems to be heating up. Amidst the striking images of President Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv, and his follow up speech in Warsaw where he raised the loud slogans “Kyiv stands strong” and “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia,” Putin was also busy in commemorating the “anniversary” with back to back three retaliatory speeches in three days in which he announced the unilateral suspension of the New START treaty as well as announced to deploy new Sarmat multi-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles this year. The western perception is that, with no major battlefield victories to report in time for the anniversary and Biden trying to rebuke him by journeying to Kyiv, Putin has instead turned to nuclear rhetoric and suspended participation in the New START arms control treaty.
After a string of speeches from both sides in the run up to the Ukraine invasion anniversary, the situation seems to be heating up.
The western perception is that, with no major battlefield victories to report in time for the anniversary and Biden trying to rebuke him by journeying to Kyiv, Putin has instead turned to nuclear rhetoric and suspended participation in the New START arms control treaty. These issues manifest in multiple ways, from the types of weapons the US is willing to provide to divergent scenarios about how the war may ultimately come to a close. The phrase “as long as it takes” means different dogmas to different stakeholders, and signs indicate that this war – one that Putin cannot afford to lose – may continue for many more years, testing the West’s tenacity with regard to Ukrainian sovereignty and stability.
While Zelensky is pushing hard for F-16 fighter jets, Biden is quite reluctant to agree, highlighting the dilemma of how far to go in supporting Ukraine without provoking a direct clash with Russia. Meanwhile, Biden’s demonstrative trip to Kiev and Warsaw was an attempt to justify the previous large-scale assistance to Ukraine by referring to the growing threat from Russia against a number of countries in the region. Meanwhile, the rumors are rife that Putin is planning to launch a spring offensive to grab some selective territories inside Ukraine.
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