AUD/USD Forecast: The 200-day SMA emerges as a formidable support

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AUD/USD Forecast: The 200-day SMA emerges as a formidable support
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The decent advance in the US Dollar (USD) did not prevent the Aussie dollar from regaining some composure and encouraging AUD/USD to reclaim the area past 0.6600 the figure following Friday’s strong decline.

AUD/USD partially reverses Friday’s steep retracement. Gains in the US Dollar mainly affect the Euro following elections. The next risk event for AUD comes from the FOMC meeting. The decent advance in the US Dollar did not prevent the Aussie dollar from regaining some composure and encouraging AUD/USD to reclaim the area past 0.6600 the figure following Friday’s strong decline.

Currently, money markets are forecasting about a 20-bps easing by May 2025, with potential rate hikes still possible in August and November. Supporting this, the RBA's Monthly CPI Indicator rose more than expected in April, increasing to 3.6% from 3.5%. Given the Fed's commitment to tightening and the likelihood that the RBA will maintain its restrictive stance for an extended period, AUD/USD is expected to further consolidate in the coming months.

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