As Varadkar prepares for another stint as Taoiseach, the pressure is on FG leader to deliver

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As Varadkar prepares for another stint as Taoiseach, the pressure is on FG leader to deliver
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Leo Varadkar: The second coming? Fine Gael leader set to return as Taoiseach

In a little over a week Varadkar will chair the meeting for the first time. A century on from a bloody Civil War, the two parties forged out of that conflict will perform a smooth handover of power at the halfway point in this Government’s term. The handover is unprecedented in the history of the State, and a rotation that Varadkar has paved the way for. In a speech to the party’s ardfheis three weeks ago, he paid tribute to Martin as a “voice for decency, kindness and good sense”.

Most importantly, Varadkar must juggle the dynamic between the three leaders that has ensured this Government has not at any stage come close to collapse. Martin has been seen as a consensus builder. The question is whether Varadkar can repeat the trick.“The fact that there can be a relatively seamless transition is a sign that politics works and the Government has proved relatively stable.

“When he came into office they [FF] didn’t understand him and they didn’t like him so the Frances thing would have been an important watershed for both men in their relationship,” a well-placed source says. It extends to relationships in the corridors of power. One source recalls how Varadkar “would regularly walk past people… eyeball them and not say hello”.Aides talk of painstaking efforts at wrangling Varadkar, having at times to cajole him into photo ops with the public that are regarded as the bread-and-butter of retail politics.

This awkwardness is not new. A source involved in his leadership campaign recalls how his tight-knit team had to school him as he sought support within the parliamentary party . “Everyone we got over the line to support Leo from the PP, we had done an analysis on them for him,” says the source – an analysis which then had to be drilled into Varadkar, who was told to ask about their granny, their father, their children.

It stood in sharp contrast to Varadkar’s leadership during the first lockdown, when one source says within Fine Gael the feeling was “this is why we picked Leo”.In truth Varadkar was giving vent to legitimate concerns, but the impulsive and aggressive way he did it showed how his character, and aspects of how he does politics can destabilise. His Coalition partners are wary of the potential for this to become a feature.

The prolonged Garda investigation around his leaking of the Government’s pay deal for GPs and the DPP’s ultimate decision not to prosecute was a humbling experience that, people close say, has changed him. It has made him “completely contrite” and gave him “a taste” of how things can “blow up”. It has also left him with a new appreciation for the people in his circle of trust. While he survived it was a terrifyingly close brush with a deeply ignominious end to his career.

At 43, Varadkar will still be one of the youngest leaders the country has had when he becomes Taoiseach again. “He has definitely matured and settled down a bit. The Love Actually references and all that sh*te has faded away,” said one source. His challenge is to prove he is the political heavyweight he claimed to be when campaigning to become leader: a transcendent brand that would attract new voters. Failure could expose him as what one critic described as “ultimately a very smart but quite superficial tactician rather than a strategist…that’s why he hasn’t become the political force people thought he would”.

Cabinet colleagues say Varadkar has a deep understanding of policy, often impressing with a perceptive take on an issue. But critics say that while sophisticated, his policies lack punch and risk drifting away from the party’s base. His time in the Department of Enterprise is pointed to by some critics as focusing too much on workers’ rights. “The challenge is to reconnect with their likely voting base,” says a source.“He’s lost his way politically,” says this person.

There are also concerns that some within the party are too eager to pick “culture war issues on the right rather than the issues people care about”, one critic says. “Maybe it goes down well with the IFA [Irish Farmers’ Association]…but not with anyone who is urbane and forward thinking or looking for something new, fresh or exciting in politics.”

One source says Varadkar is very conscious that he did not deliver on “the Leo factor” – a selling point in the 2017 leadership content – in the 2020 election. “That’s a wrong he’s determined to right.”

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