As he did in the run-up to the APC presidential primary, Bola Tinubu has so far campaigned in states where his party is either in government or has local strongmen.
To win the presidential election, Bola Tinubu apparently believes that he must retain the support that his All Progressives Congress enjoyed in the core North in the 2015 and 2019 elections and also improve on the ruling party’s fortune in the South, particularly the South-east and the South-south – two regions that have been outside the control of the APC.
However, the fortune of the party improved in 2019 when President Buhari polled a total of 403,968 from the five Southeast states, more than twice the 198,248 he got in 2015. In addition, the APC now has two governors in the region, David Umahi of Ebonyi and Hope Uzodinma of Imo State. Uche Ogah and Ikechi Emenike won parallel primaries conducted by different factions of the party and have been in court since. However, Mr Emenike is the coordinator of the party’s presidential campaign in the state.
In the South-south, Mr Tinubu has focused on Delta, Bayelsa and Cross River where he has close allies. They include Governor Ben Ayade in Cross River, Minister of State for Petroleum and former governor Timipriye Sylva and David Lyon in Bayelsa, and Ovie Omo-Agege, the Deputy Senate President and APC governorship candidate in Delta State.in the post-primary dispute between John Enoh and Itu Bassey. The former lost the governorship primary and approached the court to nullify the election.
As pointed out earlier, to win, Mr Tinubu may need to do better than the incumbent president did as in the South. This is because without President Buhari on the ballot, the ruling party faces a stiffer challenge than in 2015 and 2019 from Atiku of the PDP and Mr Kwankwaso of the NNPP in the North-west and the North-east. Being from the South, Mr Tinubu will be counting on the APC governors in the zones to deliver the votes.
Inevitably, Mr Tinubu and his team will have to visit states where he does not have local strongmen, whatever the colours he allotted to them in his ledger.Last week, Mr Tinubu also met with labour unions on his plans for the country. The issue of the Academic Staff Union of Universities came up again, and he promised that he will copy and paste the American student loan system. In his speech, he argued that under his watch, there would be no more ASUU strikes.
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