The tiny Polish village of Miejsce Odrzanskie has become the unlikely source of international media attention over the past fortnight as a result of what the New York Times called “a strange population anomaly”.
”. It has now been almost a decade since the last boy was born in this place, with the most recent 12 babies all having been girls.as saying there has been “scientific interest” – presumably from geneticists – in exploring what has led to this unusual sequence. He also discusses some glaringly unscientific advice the town has been given on how to conceive boys, ranging from changing mothers’ diets to “keeping an ax under your marital bed”.
But the most prosaic suggestion mentioned in the article is also by far the most likely – that it’s just a statistical coincidence. So how could this be possible? Just like a coin toss, a birth has two equally likely outcomes – and therefore the probability of any given baby being a girl is ½. We can also assume that each individual birth can be considered to be independent of the previous one – the first mother having a girl doesn’t make it any more or less likely that the second mother will have a girl.=¼.
Based on this, we’d actually expect roughly 50 towns in the world with 12 consecutive girls , and another 50 with 12 consecutive boys. So, although this run of girls seems like a strange and unique event to the people of Miejsce Odrzanskie, there are in fact probably about 99 other places in the world where something similar is happening right now.Part of the reason why the Miejsce Odrzanskie case might have captured so much attention is down to the timescale involved.
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