Apart from the 2014-15 primary when APC was in the opposition, there is no antecedent to show that internal democracy has influence elections.
In my permutations, the APC primary election may coronate a Southern candidate endorsed by the president and his allies. Powershift within the APC seems to have tilted towards the South, as argued by notable Northern party leaders. The PDP faces a stiffer test. The party seems somewhat fixated on a Northern candidate. However, whoever emerges as party chairman from the convention would be a clear signal of which geopolitical zone could produce the party’s presidential flag-bearer.
I am projecting that in the Compromise Scenario in the APC, the incumbent president would hold sway. For a party in power, the president has the joker. He is the “sovereign” and has something to protect – his legacy and self-preservation. For the 2023 project, we can be optimistic if the president deploys the influence of his office maximally and reins in the party leaders, including the influential club of governors, so that the party produces a compromise candidate on his terms.
Let us assume that the two major parties conduct their congresses according to the best tenets of democracy, and the candidates who emerge as party delegates have overwhelming and majority support, then the next task would be to produce the presidential candidates with the best shots at winning the general election. At the national level, a pertinent issue has always been that of zoning.
The third scenario is the Old bloc vs New Bloc. The old bloc is represented by the Atiku/Obi alliance, while the compact between a South-South governor and a North-West governor could represent the new bloc. The Atiku/Obi alliance has a national stature and network but may not have as much resources as it had in its last outing. The compact between a South-South governor/ North-West governor may have the necessary resources but not the national clout and network required.
In conclusion, the congresses are essential, and the zone of the party chairmen are pointers to where the presidential candidates would likely come from. The politics of zoning may influence where each party may be inclined to pick a presidential candidate from because power capture may be more important than the morality of fairness and equity.
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