In less than 24 hours, Nigerians will troop out to elect the next president for the largest country in Africa. The nation has been presented with 18
presidential candidates; however, if the spread and campaign activities are to be used as a yard-stick, the race is shaping to be a four-horse race.
For the candidates to win, they must fulfil the two conditions mentioned in the 1999 constitution, which provides that a candidate must get a simple majority of the vote cast and 25 percent in 24 states and the FCT.The region has five states- Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, Enugu and Imo states and due to ethnic colouration, are expected to go to the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, who is a former Governor of Anambra State.
The reason could be that the Obidient movement threatens his political structure, as voters may vote LP across the board, a decision that may affect his senatorial ambition and others in the PDP. PDP won the state during the last presidential election with 65% of the total votes cast, while APC got 27.5 percent.
While Ortom is the governor, however, other PDP bigwigs like former Governor Gabriel Suswan and Senator Abba Moro are on the ballot on Saturday as candidates of the PDP, including the governor himself. Even the national chairman of the PDP, Iyorchia Ayu is from the state. The APC may get backlash due to the party’s Muslim/Muslim ticket. Even in the Muslim community, the votes will be between PDP and APC.This state is another clear example of LP and PDP chasing similar voters. In Nasarawa State, PDP will have to rely on party structure to deliver the state, as voters in Mararaba, Masaka and other places close to Abuja in Karu Local government area of the state may vote Obi.
Natasha Apoti and some PDP bigwigs are expected to make waves for Atiku, but the APC may enjoy some enthusiasm in Kogi West— particularly in the Okun speaking part, who may sympathise with Tinubu. It will be a battle between Dino Melaye and James Faleke in Ijumu LG.Niger state, a state that is always mentioned at every presidential election, because any serious candidate must visit Abdulsalam Abubakar and Ibrahim Babangida at their hilltop mansions.
Although the governor claimed that he did not anoint any candidate for the primary, however, there were indications that the governor backed Mohammed Idris, the publisher of Blueprint newspaper, but was defeated. APC is expected to pull some numbers in Abuja South— Gwagwalada, Kwali, Abaji and Kuje, although Hassan Sokodabo, the PDP rep member in the constituency and urban voters in Gwagwalada may further hurt the APC.
Unfortunately for the PDP, the party will have to share its fortune with the Labour Party, particularly among the youths. While governor Godwin Obaseki is always quick to dismiss the movement, his prediction that the movement will fizzle out is yet to be seen. In 2019, Akpabio was able to get 30% of the votes cast in Akwa-Ibom, but the recent crisis in the APC presents a challenge for him; however, there is a great deal of uncertainty hanging over the PDP, particularly as regards the governorship candidate.PDP, LP, APC— it will be a close contest between LP and APC for the second position.This state is going to be a strong battleground between the PDP and APC as some sort of a litmus test for the governorship election.
Events in the past couple of weeks show that there is a deliberate attempt by Governor Nysome Wike to deliver the structure of the state to Tinubu, however, there are people still loyal to Atiku. It will not be strange if the two parties get 1 million votes apiece. NNPP is strong in Kano Central, while the APC is strong in North and South.
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